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Mark his words and laugh in two years.
This was posted
on the 27 July 2012 at 4:04 pm and is in the Collabora, English, Gnome category.
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12 August 2012 à 3:40 pm
Is there supposed to be a link for that? Because right now it looks like you just made it up and just link back to yourself 😛
12 August 2012 à 4:21 pm
@RealNC: Edward was sitting next to me when I blogged that.
12 August 2012 à 3:43 pm
Well.. What is it Facebook does again? I know they have an XMPP server, a blog system with comments and an OpenID-like service. Did I forget anything? Facebook doesn’t provide anything essential or even particularly special. Compare this to web search. That’s essential. It’s something that cannot easily be decentralized and creating one is very expensive. Companies like Google, Microsoft and Apple are much more stable than Facebook – whos only real currency is the number of users, who, perhaps a little ironically, is highly mobile. The world doesn’t really need Facebook, as far as I can see. It’s just convenient because all the people are there. But that means once people realize they don’t need it, and start looking for the service they’re most comfortable with, Facebook might actually collapse because users have gone some place else.
I think it’s rather extreme to claim that it _will_ collapse, but the idea itself is certainly not laughable.
12 August 2012 à 3:59 pm
Marking yours too. Looking forward to guranteed laugh 1 aug ’14 😉
12 August 2012 à 10:08 pm
@Jo-Erlend – actually, no. The Facebook population isn’t really all that mobile, because the most critical feature of the system is that Facebook is where people’s friends are. A competitor like Google+ has a huge battle to attract users, because nobody wants to use a social network which none of their social group use.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not all that fond of them. But it *is* laughable to think that their user base can easily migrate away…
13 August 2012 à 4:36 am
@Jo-Erlend if you think Facebook is chat+blog service, you’re missing the point (by a fairly massive margin).
It’s fine to dislike Facebook, even to claim they do very few innovative things, but making estimates of future success without understanding the concept is just not possible.
1 September 2012 à 9:40 pm
for me facebook doesn’t provide anything useful. its just a waste of time.
but … its a nice playground for online-neurotics. so the recources of these people are bound to facebook – maybe that is the true useful service of facebook 🙂 so these people can’t annoy us with their presence at other places.
hopefully also after 01.08.2014 also.
my five cents to that